A decade from now, Brazil's share in world agricultural trade will increase while the United States' share tends to decrease, with China continuing to be the main driver of agricultural development, according to data released by the US Department of Agriculture.

According to a report by the Usda on February 21, despite the current slowdown in world population growth, rising global income levels, especially in developing countries and Asia, will boost food production, especially protein production. As a result, the report predicts that the agricultural sector will continue to be profitable, but rising costs may prevent further increases in capacity, while Brazil will shine in all major agricultural export sectors.

In addition to China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Iran and Mexico are also noteworthy markets for grain, oil and animal protein producers and exporters, according to Usda data.

According to Usda estimates, soybeans will remain the flagship product of Brazilian agriculture in 2031-32, with exports reaching 136 million tons. By then, Brazil's share of the international oil crop trade will have climbed to 62 per cent. At the same time, growth in oil exports is likely to be limited, with biodiesel, which could reach 15 billion litres by 2031, likely to account for a smaller share of the global market than it does now.

The report also assessed corn export performance over the next decade, suggesting that Brazil's corn exports will increase from 43 million tons now to 65 million tons by 2031, increasing its share of the global trade market to 26 percent.

In addition, the Usda sees the biggest increase in Brazil's agricultural market share in the global cotton crop. The increase in acreage and the use of related technologies will lift Brazil's export share of cotton fibre to 27 per cent of the global market, up from 17 per cent now.

Brazil will also lead the way in the production and export of animal protein, the report said. By 2031, Brazil will continue to lead chicken exports, reaching 5.2 million tons, according to the Usda. By then, Brazil's beef exports will account for 26.3 percent of the global market, and the country will remain the largest exporter of beef. In addition, Brazil's share of pork trade will rise to 13 percent by 2031, ranking it third in the global market.

The Usda data indicate that Brazil's participation in foreign markets will increase over the next decade, both in the grain and protein industries. But the report also notes that agricultural commodity prices will fall back to levels lower than in recent years. The high transaction prices for Brazilian crop exports in 2020-2021 will not be repeated in the coming years.